Turn a friendly conversation into a black ops, CIA information gathering mission. Call your buddy on the phone and casually ask, "Who do you like for your first round pick? You pick before me so it doesn't matter if you tell me." When they tell you that they're interested in players you like, misinformation, misinformation, misinformation. Try to cloud their head with made up facts and figures like "did you know that he was only targeted in the redzone twice last year?" or "On 12 carries inside the 5, he only scored 2 times." This strategy puts the responsibility on them to look up your stats to disprove them. If they don't, it could stick in their head when it is their turn to pick. Repeat this process several times until you have infiltrated the conscious of every opponent. Because let's face it, your opponents are married, have kids, work, responsibilities and nobody even knew if there was going to be football this year. The shortened prep time should help this misinformation strategy get a least a few of your prized players to drop a few spots for you to scoop them up.
Stop listening to over hyped experts, Mathew Berry comes to mind, when making important draft day decisions. With dozens of custom scoring systems, your league is most likely unique. These experts can only base their assumptions on standard, yards, TD only or PPR scoring systems. You know your scoring system better than anyone, go with your gut. Some websites allow you to enter your scoring system and based on their player predictions, will rank the players for you. This type of tool can be really useful. When you change a passing TD from 4 points to 6, a huge difference in the rankings occurs and several QB's move up into the top 50. If you add points for 50+ TD's, DeSean Jackson moves up the board. My point is, you can't put too much stock in these experts who do not know your specific scoring system when they rank players.
If you are meeting with your friends to draft, pour heavy. It's not against the rules to turn your opponents beers into boiler makers. Tell them its a new Irish microbrew with hints of whiskey. Try to make as many toasts as possible, its been a year since the last draft, somebody got married, had a baby or got a new job, take advantage. Try to create a nostalgic atmosphere, "It's been so long since we all got together, let's drink." "Thank god we got an afternoon away from the wives, lets drink." In addition, make sure you bring a lot of high salt snacks to drum up some thirst. If you have performed this strategy correctly, at least two of your fellow GM's will be slurring their way through rounds 10-16. Mission accomplished! Hopefully they remember some of the misinformation you planted weeks ago.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Draft Day Tips
Know your opponents. It is important to know the draft strategies and tenancies of other GM's in your draft. Look back at the last several drafts and some GM's will reveal a pattern. For example, some take a top 5 QB every year in the 2nd round, some take two RB's in the first two rounds every year, some may have a tendency to wait for a TE until the 10th round. The more you know about your opponents the better you can prepare for your draft. I have a GM in my league who drafts 5 RB's in the first 7 or 8 rounds every year and every year he sits 2 starting RB's on his bench, his WR suck and never makes the playoffs. But hey, its his prerogative. Knowing his strategy is important because I need to get my two starters in the first 3 rounds because if I wait until round 5 to get my 2nd starting RB, I'll wind up with Lynch or Woodhead. Set up an Excel spreadsheet and mock draft according to other GM's strategies, this can help you anticipate where to take the players that you have targeted.
Don't get caught up with bye weeks. There is too much statistical information to keep straight in your head, making picks based on bye weeks just adds to confusion. Do you really want a player who will score less or be less reliable because the player you really wanted shares a bye week with your QB? Pick the best player and don't worry about having one week with too many bye week players. If that happens to be your scenario, you lose one week and then your in a stronger position to win the rest of the season.
Even if your favorite football team has a few good fantasy players, be wary of drafting more than one. I say this because every league has a hopeless homer who lets their passion for their real football team ruin the chances of their fake team winning. I am not stating that it is bad to have more than one player from a team, I do not let that factor stop me from drafting the best player on my board. But more often than not, a GM can have their vision clouded by the hopes and dreams of their NFL team. Believe me, when your NFL team has a terrible day, its compounded when your fantasy team fails with them.
Don't get caught up with bye weeks. There is too much statistical information to keep straight in your head, making picks based on bye weeks just adds to confusion. Do you really want a player who will score less or be less reliable because the player you really wanted shares a bye week with your QB? Pick the best player and don't worry about having one week with too many bye week players. If that happens to be your scenario, you lose one week and then your in a stronger position to win the rest of the season.
Even if your favorite football team has a few good fantasy players, be wary of drafting more than one. I say this because every league has a hopeless homer who lets their passion for their real football team ruin the chances of their fake team winning. I am not stating that it is bad to have more than one player from a team, I do not let that factor stop me from drafting the best player on my board. But more often than not, a GM can have their vision clouded by the hopes and dreams of their NFL team. Believe me, when your NFL team has a terrible day, its compounded when your fantasy team fails with them.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
A Big Playoff Performance Does Not Predict Success the Following Year.
Who else got caught up in the Shonn Green mania before the 2010 draft? I know I did, I made him my number 1b running back and planned on starting him all year with Frank Gore. Much of the hype surrounding Green came from his impressive 2009 playoff run. He was only the fifth rookie to post two 100-yard games in the playoffs. In a first round win over the Cincinnati Bengals, Green rushed for 135 yards and a touchdown. Against his next opponent, the San Diego Chargers, he rushed for 128 yards on 23 carries including a 53-yard touch down in the fourth quarter.
Two games, although really big playoff appearances, is still a very small sample size. Especially considering that after his first 12 games of the 2009 season, excluding the 144-yard, 2-touchdown game he had in mop up duty against a Raiders team that basically gave up after the second quarter, Greene essentially had no fantasy value. Outside of that Raiders game, Greens best game was 59 yards on 11 carries against the Buffalo Bills.
But in June of 2011 Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer announced that Greene will be the starting running back in the 2011 season, with LaDanian Tomlinson taking a 3rd down role. Many experts believed that Tomlinson was washed up and that Green, an up and comer, would take over a majority of the running back duties for the Jets in 2010. But some major factors were overlooked in this assessment, number one; Green does not catch the ball well out of the backfield. In 2008, Green only caught 8 balls for 49 yards for Iowa. Secondly, Green was ineffective on the blitz pickup. These two factors help Tomlinson get on the field and prove the third, most devastatingly important factor, Tomlinson had plenty of gas left, at least until the near end of the year.
Green was picked in the top 10 in most fantasy league drafts in 2010. His stellar playoff production was by far the biggest reason most people were sold on the young running back. But if everyone stopped and looked at his regular season stats, they would have been underwhelmed by the total mediocrity of his performance. Every league had someone who was burned by Green last year. It’s a valuable lesson moving forward that a few good playoff games do not make a player a lock for future success.
Two games, although really big playoff appearances, is still a very small sample size. Especially considering that after his first 12 games of the 2009 season, excluding the 144-yard, 2-touchdown game he had in mop up duty against a Raiders team that basically gave up after the second quarter, Greene essentially had no fantasy value. Outside of that Raiders game, Greens best game was 59 yards on 11 carries against the Buffalo Bills.
But in June of 2011 Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer announced that Greene will be the starting running back in the 2011 season, with LaDanian Tomlinson taking a 3rd down role. Many experts believed that Tomlinson was washed up and that Green, an up and comer, would take over a majority of the running back duties for the Jets in 2010. But some major factors were overlooked in this assessment, number one; Green does not catch the ball well out of the backfield. In 2008, Green only caught 8 balls for 49 yards for Iowa. Secondly, Green was ineffective on the blitz pickup. These two factors help Tomlinson get on the field and prove the third, most devastatingly important factor, Tomlinson had plenty of gas left, at least until the near end of the year.
Green was picked in the top 10 in most fantasy league drafts in 2010. His stellar playoff production was by far the biggest reason most people were sold on the young running back. But if everyone stopped and looked at his regular season stats, they would have been underwhelmed by the total mediocrity of his performance. Every league had someone who was burned by Green last year. It’s a valuable lesson moving forward that a few good playoff games do not make a player a lock for future success.
Saturday, July 23, 2011
Lessons learned from 2010
Heading into the 2011 fantasy football season I thought it would be helpful to reflect back on the mistakes I made in 2010, and I made plenty. Last year was the first time I failed to make the playoffs in a 10 team league in nine years. Many of the problems I experienced last year resulted from, in retrospect, a poor draft. In order to avoid last years mistakes, I will layout last years biggest regrets. One thing to note is that I play in a point per reception league.
1. Drafting two Wide Receivers who were heading to new teams.
Last year I drafted Brandon Marshal and Anquan Boldin in the third and fourth round respectively. Both or which I thought I received great value in regards to draft position, 29th and 32nd overall. My favorite fantasy football magazine, Fantasy Football Index, rated Marshall as the number 2 best WR and the 8th overall player in the PPR format. Boldin was ranked the 13th best WR. Marshall was coming off his third season with over a 100 catches and had one game in 2009 where he caught 21 balls in one game. Boldin was coming off his second straight season of over 83 catches. In a PPR format, the players who catch the most balls are far more valuable than the players who may lead in TD's or receiving yards from the previous year. This is mainly because catches are usually more consistent than yards and touchdowns.
However, there was a lot of risk involved with players that were moving to new teams with different offensive systems and player personal. The fact that Miami and Baltimore had young, developing QB's and both WR's were leaving pass heavy teams for run heavy teams only compounded the risk. These were risks that I overlooked during the draft where there is a limited amount of time to draft your players, 2 minutes in my league.
The results, Marshall finished the year with his lowest number of catches, 86, lowest TD production, 3, and lowest number of receiving yards, 1014 since his rookie campaign. Boldin actually finished a whole season for the first time since 2006, but had his lowest number of catches, 64 and lowest number of receiving yards, a paltry 837 yards, since 2004 where he only played 10 games.
Lesson learned, players who are headed to new teams need time to acclimate to their new offensive systems and develop the type of on field relationships with their teammates in order to be successful. There are many examples of WR who join new teams and loss production, Deion Branch and T.J. Houshmandzadeh immediately come to mind. The chemistry between a WR and their QB cannot be underestimated. Its a factor that can be taken for granted sometimes in fantasy football where we are all so caught up with the previous production and stats of a player.
Next Post I will discuss additional lessons learned. Feel free to add what mistakes you learned from the 2010 season. Hopefully we can gain insight in others misfortunes to avoid the same mistakes.
1. Drafting two Wide Receivers who were heading to new teams.
Last year I drafted Brandon Marshal and Anquan Boldin in the third and fourth round respectively. Both or which I thought I received great value in regards to draft position, 29th and 32nd overall. My favorite fantasy football magazine, Fantasy Football Index, rated Marshall as the number 2 best WR and the 8th overall player in the PPR format. Boldin was ranked the 13th best WR. Marshall was coming off his third season with over a 100 catches and had one game in 2009 where he caught 21 balls in one game. Boldin was coming off his second straight season of over 83 catches. In a PPR format, the players who catch the most balls are far more valuable than the players who may lead in TD's or receiving yards from the previous year. This is mainly because catches are usually more consistent than yards and touchdowns.
However, there was a lot of risk involved with players that were moving to new teams with different offensive systems and player personal. The fact that Miami and Baltimore had young, developing QB's and both WR's were leaving pass heavy teams for run heavy teams only compounded the risk. These were risks that I overlooked during the draft where there is a limited amount of time to draft your players, 2 minutes in my league.
The results, Marshall finished the year with his lowest number of catches, 86, lowest TD production, 3, and lowest number of receiving yards, 1014 since his rookie campaign. Boldin actually finished a whole season for the first time since 2006, but had his lowest number of catches, 64 and lowest number of receiving yards, a paltry 837 yards, since 2004 where he only played 10 games.
Lesson learned, players who are headed to new teams need time to acclimate to their new offensive systems and develop the type of on field relationships with their teammates in order to be successful. There are many examples of WR who join new teams and loss production, Deion Branch and T.J. Houshmandzadeh immediately come to mind. The chemistry between a WR and their QB cannot be underestimated. Its a factor that can be taken for granted sometimes in fantasy football where we are all so caught up with the previous production and stats of a player.
Next Post I will discuss additional lessons learned. Feel free to add what mistakes you learned from the 2010 season. Hopefully we can gain insight in others misfortunes to avoid the same mistakes.
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