A Big Playoff Performance Does Not Predict Success the Following Year.

Who else got caught up in the Shonn Green mania before the 2010 draft? I know I did, I made him my number 1b running back and planned on starting him all year with Frank Gore. Much of the hype surrounding Green came from his impressive 2009 playoff run. He was only the fifth rookie to post two 100-yard games in the playoffs. In a first round win over the Cincinnati Bengals, Green rushed for 135 yards and a touchdown. Against his next opponent, the San Diego Chargers, he rushed for 128 yards on 23 carries including a 53-yard touch down in the fourth quarter.

Two games, although really big playoff appearances, is still a very small sample size. Especially considering that after his first 12 games of the 2009 season, excluding the 144-yard, 2-touchdown game he had in mop up duty against a Raiders team that basically gave up after the second quarter, Greene essentially had no fantasy value. Outside of that Raiders game, Greens best game was 59 yards on 11 carries against the Buffalo Bills.

But in June of 2011 Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer announced that Greene will be the starting running back in the 2011 season, with LaDanian Tomlinson taking a 3rd down role. Many experts believed that Tomlinson was washed up and that Green, an up and comer, would take over a majority of the running back duties for the Jets in 2010. But some major factors were overlooked in this assessment, number one; Green does not catch the ball well out of the backfield. In 2008, Green only caught 8 balls for 49 yards for Iowa. Secondly, Green was ineffective on the blitz pickup. These two factors help Tomlinson get on the field and prove the third, most devastatingly important factor, Tomlinson had plenty of gas left, at least until the near end of the year.

Green was picked in the top 10 in most fantasy league drafts in 2010. His stellar playoff production was by far the biggest reason most people were sold on the young running back. But if everyone stopped and looked at his regular season stats, they would have been underwhelmed by the total mediocrity of his performance. Every league had someone who was burned by Green last year. It’s a valuable lesson moving forward that a few good playoff games do not make a player a lock for future success.