Heading into the 2011 fantasy football season I thought it would be helpful to reflect back on the mistakes I made in 2010, and I made plenty. Last year was the first time I failed to make the playoffs in a 10 team league in nine years. Many of the problems I experienced last year resulted from, in retrospect, a poor draft. In order to avoid last years mistakes, I will layout last years biggest regrets. One thing to note is that I play in a point per reception league.
1. Drafting two Wide Receivers who were heading to new teams.
Last year I drafted Brandon Marshal and Anquan Boldin in the third and fourth round respectively. Both or which I thought I received great value in regards to draft position, 29th and 32nd overall. My favorite fantasy football magazine, Fantasy Football Index, rated Marshall as the number 2 best WR and the 8th overall player in the PPR format. Boldin was ranked the 13th best WR. Marshall was coming off his third season with over a 100 catches and had one game in 2009 where he caught 21 balls in one game. Boldin was coming off his second straight season of over 83 catches. In a PPR format, the players who catch the most balls are far more valuable than the players who may lead in TD's or receiving yards from the previous year. This is mainly because catches are usually more consistent than yards and touchdowns.
However, there was a lot of risk involved with players that were moving to new teams with different offensive systems and player personal. The fact that Miami and Baltimore had young, developing QB's and both WR's were leaving pass heavy teams for run heavy teams only compounded the risk. These were risks that I overlooked during the draft where there is a limited amount of time to draft your players, 2 minutes in my league.
The results, Marshall finished the year with his lowest number of catches, 86, lowest TD production, 3, and lowest number of receiving yards, 1014 since his rookie campaign. Boldin actually finished a whole season for the first time since 2006, but had his lowest number of catches, 64 and lowest number of receiving yards, a paltry 837 yards, since 2004 where he only played 10 games.
Lesson learned, players who are headed to new teams need time to acclimate to their new offensive systems and develop the type of on field relationships with their teammates in order to be successful. There are many examples of WR who join new teams and loss production, Deion Branch and T.J. Houshmandzadeh immediately come to mind. The chemistry between a WR and their QB cannot be underestimated. Its a factor that can be taken for granted sometimes in fantasy football where we are all so caught up with the previous production and stats of a player.
Next Post I will discuss additional lessons learned. Feel free to add what mistakes you learned from the 2010 season. Hopefully we can gain insight in others misfortunes to avoid the same mistakes.
1. Drafting two Wide Receivers who were heading to new teams.
Last year I drafted Brandon Marshal and Anquan Boldin in the third and fourth round respectively. Both or which I thought I received great value in regards to draft position, 29th and 32nd overall. My favorite fantasy football magazine, Fantasy Football Index, rated Marshall as the number 2 best WR and the 8th overall player in the PPR format. Boldin was ranked the 13th best WR. Marshall was coming off his third season with over a 100 catches and had one game in 2009 where he caught 21 balls in one game. Boldin was coming off his second straight season of over 83 catches. In a PPR format, the players who catch the most balls are far more valuable than the players who may lead in TD's or receiving yards from the previous year. This is mainly because catches are usually more consistent than yards and touchdowns.
However, there was a lot of risk involved with players that were moving to new teams with different offensive systems and player personal. The fact that Miami and Baltimore had young, developing QB's and both WR's were leaving pass heavy teams for run heavy teams only compounded the risk. These were risks that I overlooked during the draft where there is a limited amount of time to draft your players, 2 minutes in my league.
The results, Marshall finished the year with his lowest number of catches, 86, lowest TD production, 3, and lowest number of receiving yards, 1014 since his rookie campaign. Boldin actually finished a whole season for the first time since 2006, but had his lowest number of catches, 64 and lowest number of receiving yards, a paltry 837 yards, since 2004 where he only played 10 games.
Lesson learned, players who are headed to new teams need time to acclimate to their new offensive systems and develop the type of on field relationships with their teammates in order to be successful. There are many examples of WR who join new teams and loss production, Deion Branch and T.J. Houshmandzadeh immediately come to mind. The chemistry between a WR and their QB cannot be underestimated. Its a factor that can be taken for granted sometimes in fantasy football where we are all so caught up with the previous production and stats of a player.
Next Post I will discuss additional lessons learned. Feel free to add what mistakes you learned from the 2010 season. Hopefully we can gain insight in others misfortunes to avoid the same mistakes.
Very well said Mr. Neff and really a great lesson. It's not the kiss of death if a player is going to a new team but a critical point you mention that deserves hightlighting is the type of offense they move over to. Overall, it is a high risk unknown that should be avoided. Combined with not picking a TE in 2nd round much less, 2 of them...
ReplyDeletei did everything right last year and still didn't win because of tough matchups. draft time is about minimizing risk. looking forward to your next post on the brett favre selection.
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